Will the White Catholic Vote Predict the Election?

I certainly hope that White Catholics will continue their 32 year winning streak, by selecting McCain*Palin this Tuesday.We do know we are up against a whole new game this time. We have for the first time a Black Candidate,who will certainly get 99% of the black votes. So, having something other than two White Guys sharing the votes,it changes the whole dynamic of the previous statistics.Keep those prayers going for McCain*Palin!

The Washington Post poll is not very reliable. Here’s what Opinion Dynamics Corp. polling says:

“The race has tightened in part because of changes in a couple of important swing voting groups. Independents back Obama by 5 percentage points today, down from a 9-point edge last week. Similarly, among white Catholics, Obama held an 11-point edge over McCain last week and today they split 46-46.”

as reported by Fox News.

It would be great to get the white Catholic vote numbers from one of the best polls. Do we know what that business journal polling indicates? That’s the best poll historically.

IMHO, the credibility of Fox News is very much suspect when it comes to partisanship. But, if we may consider what Fox News has reported, then we must also look to other media leaders for a more complete look. Here is what Tim Rutten of the LA Times has written:

“according to a recent New York Times/CBS poll, Obama holds a commanding 59% to 31% edge over McCain among Catholics nationwide.”

Rutten continues saying, “What we’re seeing in these three swing states [Pennsylvania, Colorodo, Missouri] is the end of the Catholic vote, as conventional political strategists traditionally have expected it to behave… National polls have shown for some time that, although Catholics are personally opposed to abortion, they believe it ought to be legal in nearly identical percentages to the rest of America. Moreover, as a survey by Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate found earlier this year, only 18% of Catholics ’strongly’ agree with the statement: ‘In deciding what is morally acceptable, I look to the church teachings and statements by the pope and bishops to form my conscience’” (10/29/2008)

Reuters Political Correspondent John Whiteside confirmed in an article today the same findings: “The Illinois senator held steady among several crucial blocs of swing voters in the Nov. 4 election, leading by 15 points among independents, 9 points among women, 5 points among men and 9 points among Catholics” (10/31/2008).

Obama’s new “catholic advantage” has been reported on by other news players including,

Beliefnet.com – “While older Catholics (age 35 and older) are split between the candidates (46% for McCain and 44% for Obama), among younger Catholics Obama leads McCain by 15 points (55% to 40%).” (10/2008)

Catholic News Agency – “A new Zogby poll claims that the presidential race between Republican Sen. John McCain and Democrat Sen. Barack Obama is again narrowing, with Monday results showing… Obama enjoy[ing] a slightly greater lead among Catholics” (10/13/08).

One gallup poll shows Obama with a “Catholic edge” as far back as July. Similar findings are were given by realclearpolitics.com, the Associated Press, and other credible news sources.

Sorry all – In my barage of polling statistics, I seemed to have forgotten to include my answer to Mr. Richert’s question, “Will white catholics play a decisive role?”

Yes – I absolutely think they will. But, no more than any other group out there. I personally disagree with the pundits(republican and democrat) who give too much attention to a group vote (i.e. female vote, black vote, blue collar vote, etc). In truth, people can never be oversimplified into any one particular group. What do you consider a blue collar african american mother with a college education who’s a catholic? That one voter alone can fit into 5 different classifications – groups which in poltiical analysis we seem to pit against each other when in reality they overlap significantly. All this blurs the statistics that we will hear from both sides of the debate.

Insofar as you vote your mind, you will matter – despite your race, religion, econ status, and so on.

Before voting,please realize where Obama stands on abortion. He is not just interested in keeping Roe Vs Wade but wants to pass the Freedom Of Choice ACT. He promised this to Planned Parenthood. His actually saying this to Planned Parenthood can be found on the internet. This Freedon of Choice Act would take ALL restrictions away from having an abortion all the way up to nine months, including the horrific partial birth abortion (partially born and then killed by suction to the brain), and he voted FOUR times against protecting LIVE BIRTH babies of botched abortion. This is where they are left in a closet to die.

If after knowing these facts and you can vote without having this on your conscious, then so be it, but do not do it in the name of being Catholic or any other religion.

Pray and think about how your vote will affect not only the mother’s who think because it is legal it is okay but also their unborn gifts.

How does a true Catholic (one who has not broken with any doctrines of the Faith), pull the lever for Obama? Even though these many months may not have fully defined who this man is–we certainly know his stance on Abortion. Obama is unwavering in his views on these topics and this is where his experience actually supports his beliefs. So much will be lost for the Right to Life given to us not by our government, but by God. Save your souls and vote McCain!

Let’s look at the bogger picture…

A vote for McCain means a vote for the death penalty from which over 1,129 have been executed (since 1976; as of Oct 2008), and with over 3,309 inmates still waiting on death row (as of Jan 2008).

A vote for McCain means a vote against stricter gun laws, which allows firearm deaths to continue ranking as the 8th highest cause of deaths in the US – with homicides being a major contributor.

A vote for McCain means a vote for an increased death toll in the Iraq War – from which over 4k US troops have perished and countless others wounded (not to mention lives lost on the Iraqi side).

Having said this, allow me to borrow (with revision) from Ms. Butters when I ask, “How does a true catholic pull the lever for McCain?” McCain may offer a more conservative approach to the abortion debate, but how can voting for him “save my soul” when he advocates for the death penalty instead of rehabilitation initiatives? Or, when he votes against firearms background checks and bans while our teenage children are dying from gang-related violence? Or, when he proposes continued Iraq War initiatives that contribute to the already regrettable death toll? If one is basing his/her vote predominantly on the sanctity of life imperative, then please ask yourself whether you do so without contradiction.

If one is basing his/her vote predominantly on the sanctity of life imperative, then please ask yourself whether you do so without contradiction.

Since you, Chris, have already made it clear elsewhere on this site that you are “pro-choice,” lecturing others on how to judge questions of the sanctity of life is boorish, at best.

The death penalty is opposed in practice by many Catholic bishops, on up to Pope John Paul II, but as the Catechism of the Catholic Church makes clear, it is a licit punishment. Moreover, it is laughable to compare the deaths of 1,129 convicted criminals to those of 40 million unborn children, innocent of any crime. Even here in my hometown, the local abortuary kills in about 10 months as many people as have been executed since 1976.

I agree with you about McCain’s support for the Iraq War, which two consecutive popes have condemned. That, along with his support for embryonic stem-cell research and his waffling over the years on abortion has convinced me that I cannot support McCain any more than I can support Obama. Since ESCR and abortion don’t bother you, however, I suspect that you won’t have any trouble voting for one of the two major-party candidates.

I would like to leave an after-thougth regarding Chris’ comment on the death penalty and death row inmates. I would like to build on what “Catholic in Ohio” stated in their last phrase, specifically “…their unborn gifts.” If you want to take issue and defend death row inmates, please keep in mind that these individuals have had their chance to live–their chance to contribute to society, albeit in a negative way, breaking the written laws of the land, if you will. Abortion does not afford that little unborn being even a chance at life, and to contribute to society, whether it be good or bad. Where’s the justice and sanctity of life in that?

I know of one elderly nun, who supports Obama, and says she will vote for him. I take it she is more Catholic, that considers the total candidate to make their choices. The article seems to be hopeful wishing based on interpretation of polling data. In other words spin to rally the troops.

Firstly don’t misunderstand me – I think abortion is wrong, end of.

However you may want to think about how the rest of the world sees your actions in voting for McCain. The Republican party has presided over years of aggressive foreign policy which has left you being reviled far and wide across the planet. You are currently engaged in 2 wars which, right or wrong, have left 4190 Americans dead in Iraq alone. These were the young and brave of your country, sent to their deaths by a gormless war mongering Republican president. Is this a legacy you want to continue? And don’t even get started on issues like global warming and the economy… these are much bigger issues than abortion – they touch so many more lives, and have the potential to inflict misery on a global scale.

I am a huge fan of America, and its people – I can honestly say that I have never seen such a beautiful land, and met such warm and friendly folk – happy voting… and for the sake of those 4190 lives – above all, DO vote.

Doug, if you think that my post is “spin to rally the troops,” then you haven’t read it closely or read any of my other election coverage, including the comments further up. I’m supporting neither Obama nor McCain. In other articles, I’ve written about the Church’s teaching that we cannot participate in an intrinsic evil (such as abortion). Here, I’m discussing an interesting demographic fact (that white Catholics have voted with the winner in the last nine elections).

John, I’m not sure whom your comments are directed to, but I’m not voting for McCain or Obama, as my remarks here and elsewhere have made clear. The war is an important consideration in my decision not to support McCain (as is his support for embryonic stem-cell research and his waffling on abortion over the years).

But neither the war nor global warming nor the economy “are much bigger issues than abortion.” War can be licit under certain circumstances (this war, I believe along with John Paul II and Benedict XVI, is not). Global warming is a disputed theory; and governments may do as much harm in the economy as they do good.

Yes, since 2003, 4,190 American soldiers have died in Iraq, and it’s a tragedy that is made worse by the unnecessary nature of the war. Yet in the United States, every day, almost as many children are aborted. The only way to regard the war as a bigger issue than abortion is to devalue the lives of unborn children.

What exactly is a “white” Catholic vote? When the pro-abolition of slavery Irish arrived here in the 1840s, they were perceived by the WASP population as “non-white”; see the Thomas Nast cartoons of Irish as apes. The KKK persecuted Catholics, of course, but all Mediterranean Catholics were hated also as “non-white.” And lynched as black. Neither candidate is at all reliable, and only one VP candidate is pro-life.

Kathleen, I assume your question is rhetorical, but just in case–pollsters define “white” as the U.S. Census Bureau does (essentially of European descent).

Scott, a no-vote is a vote for Obama. Many homeless, mentally challenged and some african americans are voting for Obama just because he promises them something or because he is part black. Don’t you understand? The Freedom of Choice Act CANNOT be implemented, the next Supreme Court justices CANNOT be pro-death libs, the unFairness Doctrine CANNOT be implemented, Socialist healthcare is NOT good quality..that’s why people come to the states for the best healthcare. I pray that you vote for the lesser of the two evils because many many more lives would be lost under Obama. Millions and millions more. We can all work with McCain regarding the war(he wants it ended too, w/ less lives lost because if we dash out w/ a date..the terrorist’s just wait us out..they have to carry their own security and they are sooo much better now) we can work w/ him regarding escr and justices. SPalin will have good influence..she has a son in the war. Please, Catholics..VOTE to SAVE millions of innocent babies. For God’s sake, PLEASE

White Catholics lost the election and took a huge step backwards in the fight against abortion. They should be ashamed to put their financial well being over the difference between right and wrong. Just because we have the medical ability to create an abortion does not make it right. The White Catholics have helped create an Obamanation. I am deeply disappointed in this showing by Christ’s Church.

Jon, I agree. Genocide continues with stronger teeth (FOCA) because of american Catholic no-votes or votes for Obama. The Obama election set pro-life causes and saving babies lives back many years. May God have mercy on us all. Our country has not been taught authentic Catholic teachings in many years. We don’t hear about the evil of abortion, how to help the pregnant, or the harm it has caused our society by our pastors. We no longer have a well informed concience. Some bishops are starting to speak out, a very few always have, and some are indifferent to abortion, just as our country voted. The laity, the CNS, up to the USCCB, we have all failed. Very few of us have fought and fought hard for them. 48 million…and c o u n t i n g

Mr. Richert, you misunderstand my intentions in my previous comment. You have heavily advocated for not voting for either candidate because of a sanctity-of-life imperative. I find it to be inherently hypocritical for commentaries to preach such a doctrine, apply it selectively to a subject which the church is most passionate about, and simply deny other related issues or fail to exert the same level of scrutiny. Needless to say, I was utterly surprised and perhaps dumbfounded that you were so crass is laughing off my arguments regarding death row inmates. I find it neither unwarranted nor conflicting to engage you on a stance you so strenuously advocate and the reasons you have in support of them.

Where the safeguarding of life is the premise, there is something profoundly disturbing about the mere thought of comparing death row inmates to potentially aborted children. Again, I do not believe humanity to begin at conception so our respective viewpoints already blur our ability to agree on the abortion statistics. But, these issues are not a matter of numbers, Mr. Richert. This should be consistent – whether unborn child, soldier, or felon – among those who see the life as their main concern. Were you consistent on your philosophies; I beleive you would have handled that response with greater sensitivity.

At the same time, I do not presume to lecture others on their core beliefs. Some members of the Catholic camp have been quick to dismiss pro-choice advocates as child-killers and by that same token; I do not see why your counterparts (including myself) would not be able to question the strength of the logic you profess. To that end, my latest response was intended to ask individuals voting solely on these issues whether they did so consistently. I respect you decision to have voted for neither candidate as is true to your creed. But, there are many uninformed Catholics out there who vote solely on the abortion issues not knowing the fundamental argument on which the position is derived. My comment was simply an attempt to engage those people.

But, these issues are not a matter of numbers, Mr. Richert. This should be consistent – whether unborn child, soldier, or felon – among those who see the life as their main concern.

There is a consistency: It’s the teaching of the Church. The Church does not teach us that it is never OK to take a human life; She teaches us that it is never OK to take a human life unjustly.

That, Chris, is what you are missing. The Church says that the death penalty is licit, even if at least two popes and many more bishops have urged that it not be used. (Remember, John Paul II, whenever he asked a governor to commute a death sentence, began by acknowledging the legitimate authority of the government to impose the death sentence.)

Likewise, the Church does not teach that all war is immoral. The just-war doctrine of the Church is not quite as ancient as Her teaching on the absolute immorality of abortion (just-war theory stems from the third and fourth centuries A.D.; the teaching on abortion is there in the first century). But the just-war doctrine is consistent, too: War can only be waged when the circumstances are just, and then it must be waged in a just manner.

Again, that is quite different from abortion, which, the Church has consistently taught, is never just.

In other words, you’re simply wrong when you imply that “the fundamental argument on which the position is derived” is essentially the preservation of all life.

And, even if it were so, your argument would still be disingenuous, because you do not believe that unborn human life requires preservation.

catholics that voted for a baby killing socialist are a disgrace to Jesus and our country.did you notice how baptist,methodist,evangelicals voted? they are the real christians who don’t leave their cross at home when they vote.half the catholics are true saints, the other half are ungodly just like the child abusing priest.at judgement day Jesus will rebuke these unholy so called christians and say i never knew you. so let it be written, so let it be done.

it’s rhetoric the like of which is posted here, some of it articulate, too much of it not, and most of it skewed by a self righteous world view that will never change, that makes me label myself not a catholic anymore. it’s a shame, because the church does so much good, both spiritually and charitably.